We have all witnessed grocery store prices increasing drastically over the past few months. Many of the rising prices are due to new tariffs and a changing economic climate, both nationally and globally. But now those steep prices are about to hit a household summer staple: the tomato.
As of May 2025, tomatoes were about $1.79 per pound, but that price may go up significantly. In this article, we will explain what to expect next time you head to the grocery store, your local pizza parlor, or your favorite Italian restaurant.
The Tomato Suspension Agreement
The Tomato Suspension Agreement was first enacted in 1996 and was designed to prevent Mexico from flooding the U.S. market with low-priced tomatoes, a practice known as dumping. Under this almost three-decade-old agreement, Mexican tomato exporters voluntarily agreed to a minimum price. In return, the growers could avoid steep anti-dumping duties and fines. The agreement also allowed for price adjustments to reflect quality issues, as outlined in guidelines established by the Perishable Agricultural Commodities Act (PACA).
However, in April 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it would terminate the current version of the agreement.
This move was met with strong support from U.S. growers. “For more than three decades, five consecutive agreements have failed to stop the illegal dumping of unfairly priced tomatoes into the U.S. market from Mexican producers,” said Robert Guenther, executive vice president of the Florida Tomato Exchange, in a statement to CNN. Guenther believes the deal jeopardized the sustainability of domestic tomato production.
Tomato Tariffs
On July 14, 2025, the Commerce Department imposed a 20.91 % antidumping duty order on most Mexican tomato imports, superseding the earlier 17 percent provisional cash‑deposit requirement. The tariffs are designed to curb what U.S. officials and growers describe as a long-running pattern of tomato dumping, which is the act of selling produce below fair market value in order to undercut domestic growers.
But Mexico isn’t just any tomato exporter. The country accounts for around 90% of all tomato imports into the United States.
For American tomato growers, these new tariffs are long overdue. Domestic producers claim that the cheaper Mexican tomatoes, sometimes sold at a loss, have driven down prices and made it harder for U.S. farms to compete. With the new tariffs in place, they hope for a more level playing field.
However, critics argue that consumers will bear the brunt of the cost. For restaurants and food manufacturers that rely on a year-round tomato supply, especially during seasons when U.S. production dips, the higher prices could create a ripple effect throughout the food system.
Will Tomato Prices Increase?
The short answer is yes, but not for everyone. Since the duty is already in effect, distributors are adjusting contracts this week; early retail prices have begun to increase in some markets.
According to Timothy Richards, professor of agribusiness at Arizona State University, consumer tomato prices are expected to rise by about 10%, while demand may drop by 5% due to the cost hike. Yet the full effect of a personal shopper will depend on where the tomatoes in their local store are coming from.
The U.S. is still a significant producer of tomatoes, especially in states like California and Florida. California alone produced 11,091,000 tons of tomatoes in 2024.
Some companies may not even feel the impact at all. Heinz, for example, uses 100% domestically grown tomatoes in its ketchup and sauces. That means their supply chain won’t be subject to the new tariffs, and prices for those products are unlikely to budge, at least for now.
Other companies and grocers that rely on Mexican tomatoes, especially during the colder months, may face challenges.
CEO of NatureSweet, Rodolfo Spielmann said in an interview with Bloomberg News that, given its thin margins, "there’s no scenario" where the company can "absorb those tariffs." Retailers may also pass the extra costs on to consumers, while others might absorb the hit to remain competitive. The true effect is yet to be seen.
How Tomato Tariffs Will Affect You
Chances are, you may notice some changes from the tag on the pint of cherry tomatoes at the grocery store to the price of your favorite margarita pizza.
Prices of Mexican-grown tomatoes at the grocery store are likely to rise due to the tariffs now in effect at the border. Availability may fluctuate as well, something you may notice immediately. If importers scale back shipments in response to the tariffs, the tomato supply may tighten in certain regions, especially in colder states that heavily rely on Mexican produce.
You should also expect price changes at foodservice outlets. Restaurants, cafeterias, and pizza shops that rely on bulk tomato imports may need to increase prices. You may not realize how many of your favorite foods rely on tomatoes. Think about these common foods that all revolve around the tomato.
- Pasta with marinara sauce
- Pizza and flatbreads
- Salads with grape tomatoes
- Fresh salsa
- Tomato-based soups and stews
But it is not all bad news for consumers. Many businesses may try to maintain stable menu pricing to avoid losing customers. Some national chains may have long-term contracts or diversified supply chains that minimize the impact. Others may adjust their menus or portion sizes to manage costs quietly.
And for restaurants and food brands that already use U.S.-grown tomatoes, the new tariffs won’t make much of a dent. This includes popular brands that market themselves as locally sourced or farm-to-table, and who may have existing relationships and contracts with American growers.
Tomatoes may seem like a humble grocery staple, but their pricing is now tangled in a complex web of trade policies, tariffs, and cross-border politics. As the U.S. government moves to protect domestic tomato farmers from foreign competition, consumers will likely pay the price. Literally.
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